A diffusion approach to approximating preservation probabilities for gene duplicates

Consider a haploid population and, within its genome, a gene whose presence is vital for the survival of any individual. Each copy of this gene is subject to mutations which destroy its function. Suppose one member of the population somehow acquires a duplicate copy of the gene, where the duplicate is fully linked to the original gene's locus. Preservation is said to occur if eventually the entire population consists of individuals descended from this one which initially carried the duplicate. The system is modelled by a finite state-space Markov process which in turn is approximated by a diffusion process, whence an explicit expression for the probability of preservation is derived. The event of preservation can be compared to the fixation of a selectively neutral gene variant initially present in a single individual, the probability of which is the reciprocal of the population size. For very weak mutation, this and the probability of preservation are equal, while as mutation becomes stronger, the preservation probability tends to double this reciprocal. This is in excellent agreement with simulation studies.

Genetic population structure and call variation in a passerine bird, the satin bowerbird, Ptilonorhynchus violaceus

Geographic variation in vocalizations is widespread in passerine birds, but its origins and maintenance remain unclear. One hypothesis to explain this variation is that it is associated with geographic isolation among populations and therefore should follow a vicariant pattern similar to that typically found in neutral genetic markers. Alternatively, if environmental selection strongly influences vocalizations, then genetic divergence and vocal divergence may be disassociated. This study compared genetic divergence derived from 11 microsatellite markers with a metric of phenotypic divergence derived from male bower advertisement calls. Data were obtained from 16 populations throughout the entire distribution of the satin bowerbird, an Australian wet-forest-restricted passerine. There was no relationship between call divergence and genetic divergence, similar to most other studies on birds with learned vocalizations. Genetic divergence followed a vicariant model of evolution, with the differentiation of isolated populations and isolation-by-distance among continuous populations. Previous work on Ptilonorhynchus violaceus has shown that advertisement call structure is strongly influenced by the acoustic environment of different habitats. Divergence in vocalizations among genetically related populations in different habitats indicates that satin bowerbirds match their vocalizations to the environment in which they live, despite the homogenizing influence of gene flow. In combination with convergence of vocalizations among genetically divergent populations occurring in the same habitat, this shows the overriding importance that habitat-related selection can have on the establishment and maintenance of variation in vocalizations.

Population dynamics and gene flow of Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) on cotton and grain crops in the Murrumbidgee Valley, Australia

The population dynamics of Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in the Murrumbidgee Valley, Australia, has been characterized using five highly variable microsatellite loci. In the 2001-2002 growing season, there were very high levels of migration into the Murrumbidgee Valley with no detectable genetic structuring, consistent with previous analyses on a national scale. By contrast, there was significant genetic structuring over the 2002-2003 growing season, with three distinct genetic types detected. The first type corresponded to the first two generations and was derived from local individuals emerging from diapause and their progeny. The second genetic type corresponded to generation 3 and resulted from substantial immigration into the region. There was another genetic shift in generation 4, which accounts for the third genetic type of the season. This genetic shift occurred despite low levels of immigration. During the third generation of the 2002-2003 growing season, different population dynamics was characterized for H. armigera on maize, Zea mays L., and cotton Gossipium hirsutum L. Populations on cotton tended to cycle independently with very little immigration from outside the region or from maize within the region. Maize acted as a major sink for immigrants from cotton and from outside the region. If resistance were to develop on cotton under these circumstances, susceptible individuals from maize or from other regions would not dilute this resistance. In addition, resistance is likely to be transferred to maize and be perpetuated until diapause, from where it may reemerge next season. If low levels of immigration were to occur on transgenic cotton, this may undermine the effectiveness of refugia, especially noncotton refugia.

Interindividual variation of isolated muscle performance and fibre-type composition in the toad Bufo viridus

Interindividual analyses of physiological performance represent one of the most powerful tools for identifying functional positive and negative linkages between various performance traits. In this study we investigated functional linkages in the whole-gastrocnemius performance of juvenile Bufo viridis by examining interindividual variation in in vitro muscle performance and muscle fibre-type composition. We used the work-loop technique to investigate the maximum in vitro power output and fatigue resistance of the gastrocnemius muscle during repeated sets of three cycles at the cycle frequency of 5 Hz, simulating an intermittent style of locomotion. We found several significant correlations between different measures of in vitro muscle performance, including a negative correlation between maximum net power output and fatigue resistance of power, indicating functional trade-offs between these performance traits. We also investigated the extent of individual variation in the proportions of different fibre types, and tested for correlations between individual variation in muscle fibre-type composition and the previously measured isolated muscle performance. Fast glycolytic fibres represented 84.0+/-3.4% of the muscle, while the combined slow oxidative and fast oxidative-glycolytic fibres represented 16+/-3.4%. We found no significant correlations between measures of in vitro muscle performance and the proportion of different fibre types in the gastrocnemius muscle. However, despite this lack of correlation between whole-muscle performance and muscle fibre-type composition data, we suggest the functional linkages detected between different measures of in vitro muscular performance have important ecological and evolutionary consequences.

Toward better outcomes with tacrolimus therapy: Population pharmacokinetics and individualized dosage prediction in adult liver transplantation

Patient outcomes in transplantation would improve if dosing of immunosuppressive agents was individualized. The aim of this study is to develop a population pharmacokinetic model of tacrolimus in adult liver transplant recipients and test this model in individualizing therapy. Population analysis was performed on data from 68 patients. Estimates were sought for apparent clearance (CL/F) and apparent volume of distribution (V/F) using the nonlinear mixed effects model program (NONMEM). Factors screened for influence on these parameters were weight, age, sex, transplant type, biliary reconstructive procedure, postoperative day, days of therapy, liver function test results, creatinine clearance, hematocrit, corticosteroid dose, and interacting drugs. The predictive performance of the developed model was evaluated through Bayesian forecasting in an independent cohort of 36 patients. No linear correlation existed between tacrolimus dosage and trough concentration (r(2) = 0.005). Mean individual Bayesian estimates for CL/F and V/F were 26.5 8.2 (SD) L/hr and 399 +/- 185 L, respectively. CL/F was greater in patients with normal liver function. V/F increased with patient weight. CL/F decreased with increasing hematocrit. Based on the derived model, a 70-kg patient with an aspartate aminotransferase (AST) level less than 70 U/L would require a tacrolimus dose of 4.7 mg twice daily to achieve a steady-state trough concentration of 10 ng/mL. A 50-kg patient with an AST level greater than 70 U/L would require a dose of 2.6 mg. Marked interindividual variability (43% to 93%) and residual random error (3.3 ng/mL) were observed. Predictions made using the final model were reasonably nonbiased (0.56 ng/mL), but imprecise (4.8 ng/mL). Pharmacokinetic information obtained will assist in tacrolimus dosing; however, further investigation into reasons for the pharmacokinetic variability of tacrolimus is required.

Population ageing and the implications for finanical markets

How will financial institutions respond to the transactions and asset management needs of both the ageing population and their carers? The ageing of the population has generated increased interest from both government and business, including banking and financial services, in the sorts of services that will be required by older people, and how their money and property will be managed. This article examines the trends and implications for banking practice of this increasing population of customers and their carers.

Population pharmacokinetics and association between A77 1726 plasma concentrations and disease activity measures following administration of leflunomide to people with rheumatoid arthritis

Aims To investigate the concentration-effect relationship and pharmacokinetics of leflunomide in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods Data were collected from 23 RA patients on leflunomide therapy (as sole disease modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD)) for at least 3 months. Main measures were A77 1726 (active metabolite of leflunomide) plasma concentrations and disease activity measures including pain, duration/intensity of morning stiffness, and SF-36 survey. A population estimate was sought for apparent clearance (CL/F ) and volume of distribution was fixed (0.155 l kg(-1)). Factors screened for influence on CL/F were weight, age, gender and estimated creatinine clearance. Results Significantly higher A77 1726 concentrations were seen in patients with less swollen joints and with higher SF-36 mental summary scores than in those with measures indicating more active disease (P < 0.05); concentration-effect trends were seen with five other disease activity measures. Statistical analysis of all disease activity measures showed that mean A77 1726 concentrations in groups with greater control of disease activity were significantly higher than those in whom the measures indicated less desirable control (P < 0.05). There was large between subject variability in the dose-concentration relationship. A steady-state infusion model best described the pharmacokinetic data. Inclusion of age as a covariate decreased interindividual variability (P < 0.01), but this would not be clinically important in terms of dosage changes. Final parameter estimate (% CV interindividual variability) for CL/F was 0.0184 l h(-1) (50%) (95% CI 0.0146, 0.0222). Residual (unexplained) variability (% CV) was 8.5%. Conclusions This study of leflunomide in patients using the drug clinically indicated a concentration-effect relationship. From our data, a plasma A77 1726 concentration of 50 mg l(-1) is more likely to indicate someone with less active disease than is a concentration around 30 mg l(-1). The marked variability in pharmacokinetics suggests a place for individualized dosing of leflunomide in RA therapy.

Levels of physical activity for colon cancer prevention compared with generic public health recommendations: Population prevalence and sociodemographic correlates

Background: The proportion of Australian adults achieving physical activity levels believed to be sufficient for colon cancer prevention was estimated, and sociodemographic correlates (age, gender, educational attainment, occupation, marital status, and children in household) of meeting these levels of activity were analyzed. Methods: Data from the 2000 National Physical Activity Survey were used to estimate the prevalence of participation in physical activity in relation to three criteria: generic public health recommendations, weekly amount of at least moderate-intensity physical activity currently believed to reduce risk of colon cancer, and weekly amount of vigorous-intensity physical activity believed to reduce risk of colon cancer. Results: Overall, 46% of adults met the generic public health criterion, 26% met the colon cancer criterion based on participation in at least moderate-intensity physical activity, and 10% met the colon cancer criterion based on vigorous-intensity physical activity. Women were less likely than men to meet the colon cancer criteria. Younger and more educated persons were more likely to meet all three criteria. The most pronounced differences between gender, age, and educational attainment groups were found for meeting the amount of vigorous-intensity physical activity believed to reduce risk of colon cancer. Conclusions: The population prevalence for meeting proposed physical activity criteria for colon cancer prevention is low and much lower than that related to the more generic public health recommendations. If further epidemiologic studies confirm that high volumes and intensities of activity are required, the public health challenges for colon cancer will be significant.

Modelling pre-clearing vegetation distribution using GIS-integrated statistical, ecological and data models: A case study from the wet tropics of Northeastern Australia

Traditional vegetation mapping methods use high cost, labour-intensive aerial photography interpretation. This approach can be subjective and is limited by factors such as the extent of remnant vegetation, and the differing scale and quality of aerial photography over time. An alternative approach is proposed which integrates a data model, a statistical model and an ecological model using sophisticated Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques and rule-based systems to support fine-scale vegetation community modelling. This approach is based on a more realistic representation of vegetation patterns with transitional gradients from one vegetation community to another. Arbitrary, though often unrealistic, sharp boundaries can be imposed on the model by the application of statistical methods. This GIS-integrated multivariate approach is applied to the problem of vegetation mapping in the complex vegetation communities of the Innisfail Lowlands in the Wet Tropics bioregion of Northeastern Australia. The paper presents the full cycle of this vegetation modelling approach including sampling sites, variable selection, model selection, model implementation, internal model assessment, model prediction assessments, models integration of discrete vegetation community models to generate a composite pre-clearing vegetation map, independent data set model validation and model prediction's scale assessments. An accurate pre-clearing vegetation map of the Innisfail Lowlands was generated (0.83r(2)) through GIS integration of 28 separate statistical models. This modelling approach has good potential for wider application, including provision of. vital information for conservation planning and management; a scientific basis for rehabilitation of disturbed and cleared areas; a viable method for the production of adequate vegetation maps for conservation and forestry planning of poorly-studied areas. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.